China and India to Outgrow USA in Times to Come: Mohan
Washington DC, September 24, 2013
"By 2030, China's economy and by 2060, India's economy
could be much larger than the economy of United States,
if one goes by current projections. The rate of change
that has been predicted, if it does come around, it
would be quite dramatic in the next 20 years. These
changes do indicate that changes at the level of global
governance to have to happen, for example the emergence
of G-20 countries, which is more participatory" said
Rakesh Mohan, Executive Director, IMF, while delivering
the 9th CUTS 30th Anniversary Lecture at Washington DC
yesterday.
In his welcome remarks, CUTS Secretary General, Pradeep
S Mehta, said that this lecture series are being
organized around the world by CUTS as it is an
international NGO pursuing economic equality and social
justice within and across borders. The twin purpose of
this series is to acquaint people about its work and for
it to draw fresh ideas for its own work agenda for the
next twenty years. Its work is around three verticals:
trade, regulation and governance, which it is pursuing
in the developing world through its own presence in Asia
and Africa.
Also speaking at the occasion were Bill Kovacic,
Professor, George Washington University and Co-Host of
the event, Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, Consulting
Editor of The Times of India Group and Edward Luce,
Chief US Commentator, Financial Times. Nirupama Menon
Rao, India's Ambassador to USA chaired the session.
"The key issue to ponder over is what will happen in the
future, given the big changes that are taking place with
the emergence of different institutions in the world and
whether the governance in multilateral institutions were
to change with more even representation with economic
weight or they will remain US/EU dominated" said Dr
Mohan.
"Thus, the question that arises is that in some ways if
you have one top dog who governs, might lead to more
stability as compared to 4-5 top dogs trying to compete
with one another on how to govern global situation,
which goes beyond just economics. But, during the next
5-10 years we are going to see changes, that we have not
seen since a long time".
Nirupama Menon Rao, India's Ambassador to USA briefly
spoke about the commitment of the Indian government
towards ensuring inclusive growth and to ensure that
fruits of growth and progress are shared with large
sections of our population, which is the mantra of the
day.
Mrs Rao reflected on the various steps being taken by
the Indian Government, such as Food Security initiative,
rural employment guarantee scheme, which provides right
based employment to the people, Right to Information
Act, which creates legal obligation on the government to
share information on how it work with the people and so
on.
She acknowledged the important contribution being made
by CUTS in order to inform policymakers at the highest
level in government and that it has truly conveyed the
message of South-South Cooperation with its presence in
many countries and that it should continue to grow to
promote equity and social justice across borders.
Bill Kovacic, Professor, George Washington University,
spoke about the need for capacity building in the new
competition systems and touched upon the seminal
contribution of CUTS on this subject through its 7Up
initiative i.e. Bottom Up Approach in over 30 countries
in Africa and Asia.
Prof Kovacic emphasised on the importance of creating
the right team and getting the right people to head a
competition agency, who have some experience of having
worked in the private sector in order to understand how
they function, without this important understanding the
agency would be in some sort of a deficit. Thus,
recruitment of the right people and the right level is
one of the key ingredients to ensure success of the
institution.
Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar briefly spoke about the
transition from the days between MRTPC to the present
Competition Act in India. He did mention that there was
a time during the MRTPC era, government control was the
key and being big was bad. One of the key changes in the
present Competition Act, being big is not bad but its
abuse is bad.
Towards the end, reacting to the issue of change in
global economic calculus, he did mention that it is
difficult to discount US but the powers of EU/US are
diminishing relatively. He emphasised that the original
idea that the dominant force is going to be EU or US in
the world is getting diluted and we are moving towards a
multi-polar world.
Edward Luce, Chief US Commentator, FT drew the attention
of the audience towards the formative years when CUTS
came into existence, which was an era of license raj,
1991 crisis, etc, thus the emergence of CUTS as a unique
pro-market organization, was a breath of fresh air. He
emphasised that the change in global economic geometry
is more of a problem for US, as compared to China and/or
India, as because it is becoming increasingly
irrelevant.
There was a lively Q&A session, when numerous micro and
macro issues were raised by the over 100 participants in
the hall. Marking an end to the session, Pradeep Mehta
in his summarisation highlighted the importance of donor
co-ordination on the vast issues that CUTS and other
organisations are working on, which is important. He
referred to the Paris Declaration, which is a soft law
and requires the donor to co-ordinate, which is being
ignored.
Udai Mehta, Associate Director, CUTS proposed a vote of
thanks at the end and handed out mementos to all the
speakers.
For further information please contact:
Udai S Mehta, +919829285926 or +12022584856,
usm@cuts.org