Defining the Future of Trade
 Need for a Geneva Consensus
 

Perception Survey

The Director General of the World Trade Organisation, Mr. Pascal Lamy, has constituted a high level Stakeholder Panel to deliberate on “Defining the Future of Trade”. Mr. Pradeep S. Mehta, Secretary General, CUTS International is a member of this body. Its objective is not to deliberate on the state of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations or the institutional structure of the WTO, but to build a future scenario on the “challenges and opportunities of opening trade today and tomorrow”.

CUTS International has submitted a Discussion Paper to this Panel and it can be accessed at: http://www.cuts-international.org/pdf/Defining_the_Future_of_Trade.pdf

CUTS International believes that the deliberations at this Panel and its report will be enriched by gathering inputs from the larger global trade & development policy community. Therefore, this independent Perception Survey is directed to a diverse set of stakeholders.

A set of objective-type questions is asked and they are supplemented by some subjective questions. The questions are not just about what do stakeholders think about the current status, but also about what they would like to see. While answering some questions, there is scope for citing examples/studies – you are requested to do so as far as you think best including, if possible with web links.

Your perceptions/views, and if needed anonymous, will be analysed to prepare a report which will be submitted to this Stakeholder Panel and will also be disseminated to the larger audience.

We request you to kindly fill this appended questionnaire for on-line submission. If in case there is any difficulty in accessing this link and/or in making on-line submission, kindly let us know and we will send you a PDF version of the questionnaire.

We request you to submit your answers by Saturday, the 18th of August 2012.

Some of you may receive it more than once. Our apologies for any inconvenience it may cause.

You will take about 20 to 30 minutes to answer these questions. You are an important stakeholder in respect to “Defining the Future of Trade”. We thank you for your time and effort.

 

We will maintain anonymity.

  Name :                   

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  Country:                 

  Organisation:           

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1. Do you think that trade liberalisation can be made an effective tool for poverty amelioration?

a. Yes
b. No
c. May be

If your answer is c) (Maybe), we request you to also answer both the following supplementary questions. Your answers will help us in mapping objectives with instruments.

Q1.1 If ‘No’, what could be the reasons? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.?

a. Iniquitous rules governing the global trading system
b. Imbalances in terms of trade of major exportables of your country
c. Weak domestic institutions to strengthen positive impacts of trade liberalisation on poverty reduction
d. Weak domestic institutions to insulate trade-exposed sectors from adverse shocks

Q1.2 If ‘Yes’, what could be done? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you

a. Make the rules governing the global trading system more development-friendly
b. Strengthen domestic institutions to better chanellise positive impacts of trade liberalisation to reduction in poverty – for example, a benefit sharing mechanism between small producers supplying goods to large exporters
c. Balance export and import policy – focus more on exportables having favourable terms of trade and on an import policy which can increase real net disposable income of domestic consumers
d. Focus on trade (export as well as import) of those products which can gradually help in skill and technology development and ensuring appropriate domestic policies for transferring skill and technology premium to increase returns to factors of production

Q2. Do you think that trade liberalisation can be made an effective tool for reducing income inequality within a country?

a. Yes
b. No
c. May be

If your answer is c) (Maybe), we request you to also answer both the following supplementary questions. Your answers will help us in mapping objectives with instruments.

Q2.1 If ‘No’, what could be the reasons? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you

a. There are structural rigidities such as lack of access to land, education, instruments for social mobility in addressing income inequality – trade liberalisation may not be able to adequately address those structural rigidities
b. Trade-related domestic institutions are too weak to reduce income inequality
c. Labour market rigidities are too strong to transfer positive impacts of trade liberalisation in reducing income inequality
d. Trade liberalisation, unless effectively synchronised, can result in increase in informal employment and worsening of working conditions

Q2.2 If ‘Yes’, what could be done? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you

a. Use trade liberalisation as an opportunity to address structural rigidities to reduce income inequality
b. Regional Trade Agreement (SAFTA)
c. Bilateral Trade Agreements

3. How do we develop a Geneva Consensus for “trade liberalisation with safety nets” and by reinforcing the virtues of multilateralism? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.

‘What’ part of your choice is given below. While prioritising your choice, you are requested to focus on and write ‘Why’ you think your choice is most important in terms of priority.

a. By bridging the gap between development concerns in capitals and negotiating concerns in Geneva
b. By building consensus step-wise – first at regional level by deliberating issues at regional economic communities and then taking them to Geneva
c. By strengthening the relationship between the WTO and other inter-governmental organisations
d. By strengthening the relationship between state and non-state actors – at domestic, regional and international level

Please explain your Choice:

4. What is the most important trade challenge in the 21st century? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.

a. Non-tariff measures impacting countries’ ability to conduct trade in tasks
b. Linkages between trade and trade-related issues in governing global public goods such as climate change, food security. Not “climate change”, “food security” per se but in terms of their impact on consumption, standards of living, terms of trade, etc
c. Any other important challenge from your perspective

4.1 If your “first priority” is a), what measures could be taken? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.

‘What’ part of your choice is given below. While prioritising your choice, you are requested to focus on and write ‘Why’ you think your choice is most important in terms of priority.

a. Moratorium on trade protectionist measures such as anti-dumping, subsidies and countervailing measures
b. Relaxation of rules governing rules of origin – allowing cumulation of value addition to a final product originated from a region and not just a country
c. Addressing procedural non-tariff measures such as delay in customs procedures, non-availability in banking and insurance facilities through a standalone multilateral agreement on trade facilitation with concomitant technical assistance for capacity building in poor countries through regional aid for trade initiatives and by linking aid for trade in goods with that in services

Please explain your Choice:

4.2 If your “first priority” is b), what measures could be taken? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.

‘What’ part of your choice is given below. While prioritising your choice, you are requested to focus on and write ‘Why’ you think your choice is most important in terms of priority.

a. Deliberate on trade and trade-related issues in governing global public goods such as climate change, food security at appropriate inter-governmental organisations such as UNFCCC, UNFAO and accordingly develop countries’ domestic capacity to address these linkages
b. Create joint working groups between the WTO and appropriate inter-governmental organisations to develop a consensus for negotiating multilateral agreements on trade and climate change, trade and food security
c. Negotiate multilateral agreements on trade and climate change, trade and food security but host them at appropriate inter-governmental organisations other than the WTO

Please explain your Choice:

4.3 If your “first priority” is c) (any other, than a) or b), important challenge from your perspective), what measures could be taken?

‘What’ part of your choice is not given below. You are requested to write two/three measures and prioritise them. While prioritising your choice, you are requested to focus on and write ‘Why’ you think your choice is most important in terms of priority.

Please explain your Choice:

5. Do you think that the following two conditions can be met, in terms of their degree of possibility and not as ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ term, in order to address 21st century trade challenges?

1) WTO, as an institution, acts as a platform where diverse expectations are harmonised
2) The new Quad of the WTO Members, consisting of Brazil, the European Union, India and the United States of America, along with China, collectively provides stability to the multilateral trading system

x. 1 with 2
y. Neither 1 nor 2

The other two Scenarios (that is, “1 without 2” and “2 without 1”) are unlikely to happen. Following your choice, you are requested to answer all three questions as below.

5.1 An ideal Scenario is x) – there is a relatively high degree of possibility that both conditions can be met. What you think could be done for Scenario x) to happen? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.

‘What’ part of your choice is given below. While prioritising your choice, you are requested to focus on and write ‘Why’ you think your choice is most important in terms of priority.

a. By addressing implementation concerns of the Uruguay Round agreements establishing the World Trade Organisation
b. By giving equal emphasis on negotiating, deliberative and dispute settlement functions of the WTO
c. By transforming special and differential treatments as in the Uruguay Round agreements establishing the WTO from “best endeavour” to “obligatory commitments”
d. By strengthening the relationship between state and non-state actors – at domestic, regional and international level

Please explain your Choice:

5.2 The most undesirable Scenario is y) – there is a relatively high degree of possibility that both conditions cannot be met. What you think would be the consequences of Scenario y)? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.

‘What’ part of your choice is given below. While prioritising your choice, you are requested to focus on and write ‘Why’ you think your choice is most important in terms of priority.
 

a. Poor countries and people will suffer more as there may be increase in poverty, income inequality with countries and inequality across countries
b. Increasing occurrence of beggar-thy-neighbour types of trade policies and negative impact of trade retaliation and counter-retaliation on other areas of international relations
c. Geneva Consensus will not happen and the relevance of the WTO as one of the three most important institutions governing the international economic system will decrease
d. There will be more uncertainty in the process of arriving at as well as balanced, positive outcomes of solving other global challenges of issues of international political economy through multilateral negotiations

Please explain your Choice:

5.3 Given that the Scenario y) is most undesirable, what you think could be done in order to prevent the Scenario y) from happening? Prioritise them – 1 being the “most important” according to you.

‘What’ part of your choice is given below. While prioritising your choice, you are requested to focus on and write ‘Why’ you think your choice is most important in terms of priority.
 

a. Conclude the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations and start focusing on domestic reform measures in order for the Doha Round agreements to deliver on development
b. Strengthen the voice of domestic constituencies, particularly small business and consumers, who can enjoy more benefits from synchronised trade liberalisation
c. Design and implement benefit sharing mechanism between small producers and large exporters so that small producers can become an effective ally of trade liberalisation policies
d. Adopt trade adjustment measures – not protectionist policies for short-term insulation from trade-related shocks but positive discrimination and other affirmative actions for skill development and technology adoption/adaptation

Please explain your Choice:

Thank You Once Again!